The Facebook Conundrum

Sitting back, enjoying my Blue Shadow (tea), I surfed the net trying to keep up with the latest tech headlines. Between CNN, ZDNet, and HackADay, I tend to get my daily fix. The caffeine soaks into my brain, making every story about the big three (Microsoft, Apple, and Google) that much more invigorating. I tend to be somewhat (very) bias against some companies when news hits. But in a recent news, Facebook was the headliner company. Facebook gets quite a few hits, and at what point even surpassed Google.com in a single day. So when Mark Zuckerberg announced some new spiderweb-ultra-web-collaborative-web-web-web tool for people to "like" stuff anywhere on the web, well... I couldn't believe that someone would think that it's starting to cramp Google's style.

THIS JUST IN! Facebook has become the new MySpace! Should we expect it's death in the coming years? Stay tuned to find out!

Facebook users are happy they no longer have a MySpace account. But wait, doesn't that mean...YES! The MySpacers have arrived and are slowly depriving Facebook of everything great that it could have been. Originally founded as a way for college students (ONLY) to meet and greet, it has turned into a giant Farmville, cultivating a generation of minds that only know how to tell people what they are doing today. As I seek alternatives to Facebook, I ponder what will happen to the future of Facebook after people, like I, decide to move on to something more intellectual.

The new "like" buttons added to millions of websites around the web are only the start of Facebook's collapse. As information shared across the net skyrockets, the security risks tend to increase as well. Companies are already able to access personal information via your profile. And if they can't, what's to stop them from creating a bogus profile of their own with an attractive girl wanting to be your friend? MySpace spammers figured it out and a caffeinated dude at a desk in an Omaha software shop figured it out, so who's next?

Sites like these have a life expectancy. Facebook has grown up and is ruling the web (not really, they aren't even close to Google). We've seen it before and it won't be too long before it will be another web fad that CollegeHumor.com decides to poke fun at. The MySpace fad lasted a few years and died due to security issues and profiles that nobody wanted to visit unless it was their own. AOL had a good run, until ISPs figured out that they could create a faster internet that isn't dependent on a client application (beyond the browser) for service. MSN still has this problem. So when should we expect the initial decline of Facebook? I would give it anywhere from 1 to 2 years. Add another 1 or 2 to that for its eventual death.

Why will Facebook die, everyone is on it, right? Yea, everyone, and their mother, and their grandparents, and their unborn children. User activity on Facebook is generated by people from 12-40 years old. It's a big population. Nothing changes on Facebook. People update their statuses and post pictures and add videos. The limits have been set, and people will naturally move on to something more entertaining and/or something that actually brings a new idea to the table. You can't sell a 10 year old computer to a nerd and tell them it's good enough. They want NEW!

In the meantime, I'm looking for something new that I can drag my real 20 of 220 friends to.